Julia Letlow's Dominant Primary Victory and Path to Runoff Victory

May 18, 2026

Overview

Julia Letlow delivered a dominant first-place victory in Louisiana's Republican Senate primary, coming within five points of winning outright despite over $14 million being spent against her.

According to official parish-level results from the Louisiana Secretary of State, Letlow received 179,876 votes — 45% of the statewide Republican primary vote. She finished nearly 17 points ahead of John Fleming and more than 20 points ahead of Bill Cassidy, who was eliminated despite his incumbency and the millions spent by his campaign and allies.

The result is a clear testament to President Trump's complete and total endorsement, Julia's conservative record, and the strength of the America First movement in Louisiana. Republican voters rejected the attacks, ignored the noise, and rallied behind President Trump's endorsed conservative.

Julia's Victory Was Broad and Statewide

Julia's first-place finish was a dominant statewide performance against two statewide elected officials. 

• She carried 52 of Louisiana's 64 parishes

• She carried all six Congressional districts

• She won 22 parishes with an outright majority

• She won 16 of the 20 highest-turnout parishes

• She carried six of Louisiana's seven media markets

By comparison: Fleming won 9 parishes, all clustered in his Shreveport-area home base. Cassidy, the sitting U.S. Senator, won just 3 parishes in the entire state.

Performance across the state's key regions:

North Louisiana / Monroe DMA — Letlow 62.5%. Julia hit 62% in her home media market — a 36-point margin over Fleming. She won Ouachita Parish (population center of northeast Louisiana) by 38.8 points with over 14,000 votes cast. She broke 65% in seven parishes: Tensas (74.6%), Concordia (69.8%), East Carroll (69.2%), Morehouse (67.3%), Madison (67.1%), Catahoula (65.4%), and Richland (64.3%).

Acadiana — Letlow 46.7%, +13.6 over Fleming. Julia won every major parish in the region: Lafayette, Acadia, Iberia, St. Landry, St. Martin, Vermilion, and Evangeline.

Southwest Louisiana — Letlow 46.9%, +17.5 over Fleming. Julia carried the Lake Charles market by 17 points, winning Calcasieu by 22.8 points with over 16,000 votes cast.

Baton Rouge region — Letlow 40.9%, +12.3 over Cassidy. Julia carried 8 of 9 parishes in the Baton Rouge media market — Ascension, Livingston, East Feliciana, West Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, Iberville, and West Baton Rouge. The lone exception was East Baton Rouge Parish itself, where Cassidy edged her by 185 votes — a near-tie in his home parish. 

New Orleans region — Letlow 42.4%, +7.4 over Cassidy. In the state's largest GOP primary market (34% of all Republican votes statewide), Julia beat a sitting U.S. Senator by more than 10,000 votes. Cassidy's vote was concentrated in Orleans and Jefferson, but Julia carried St. Tammany — the largest single parish in the metro — and remained dominant across the broader region.

Fleming's Support Is Geographically Trapped

All 9 parishes Fleming won are in or adjacent to the Shreveport DMA — Bossier, Webster, De Soto, Sabine, Bienville, Claiborne, Red River, Vernon, and Grant (which he won by exactly one vote, 1,189 to 1,188). These are the parishes of his old congressional district.

Julia carried Caddo Parish, the largest population center in Fleming's old congressional district, 6,317 to 5,838.

Fleming won zero parishes in the New Orleans DMA. Zero in the Baton Rouge DMA. Zero in Lafayette. Zero in Lake Charles. Zero in Monroe. Zero in CD-5.

To win a statewide runoff, Fleming would have to hold every voter he already has, consolidate an overwhelming share of Cassidy's voters, and dramatically expand into the same parishes and media markets where Julia already beat him decisively. There is no historical precedent for that kind of geographic inversion in a six-week runoff window.

The Runoff Math Strongly Favors Julia

Julia begins the runoff less than 6 points from a majority. Fleming begins more than 21 points away.

Assuming the same total vote universe:

• Julia needs roughly 20,684 additional votes to cross 50%.

• Fleming would need roughly 87,132 additional votes to reach the same threshold.

Put another way: Julia only needs to consolidate a modest share of the eliminated vote. Fleming would need an overwhelming — and unrealistic — share of Cassidy and Spencer voters just to catch up.

That math is even harder for Fleming when you account for who Cassidy's voters actually are. Cassidy's coalition was suburban, college-educated, traditional Republicans concentrated in Jefferson, East Baton Rouge, and Orleans. In every one of those parishes except Orleans, Julia finished a close second to Cassidy. Fleming was a distant third. Cassidy's voters in his strongholds are already overwhelmingly more familiar with Julia as their second choice than with Fleming.

That is the fundamental reality of the runoff: Julia starts with a massive vote advantage, a broad statewide coalition, President Trump's endorsement, and a clear path to victory.

The Outside Spending Onslaught Is Over

The nearly $14 million spent against Julia in the primary was driven overwhelmingly by Bill Cassidy and his allied super PAC, the Louisiana Freedom Fund — built to protect a sitting incumbent who is no longer on the ballot. With Cassidy eliminated, that spending apparatus has no candidate to defend and no remaining reason to spend.

John Fleming has no comparable outside group, no national donor base, and a campaign that raised just $45,000 in real money in the final quarter before the primary. For the first time in this race, Julia will run without millions of dollars in attack ads being fired at her every week. The runoff will be decided on the candidates and their records, and that is a fight Julia wins every time.

Conclusion

Julia Letlow won a dominant first-place victory despite nearly $14 million being spent against her.

She won 45% of the vote. She carried 52 of 64 parishes. She won 6 of 7 media markets. She won 16 of the 20 highest-turnout parishes. She defeated an incumbent United States Senator by more than 80,000 votes. She entered the runoff with a 66,448-vote lead over John Fleming.

Louisiana Republicans made their choice clear. They want President Trump's endorsed conservative in the United States Senate, and Julia Letlow is in a commanding position to finish the job on June 27th.